January Live Cattle Futures Trade

January Trading Report - Part 3

New position taken in Live Cattle

Date	Future	Qty	Position	Price	Exit
15-Jan	LCJ14	7	long	138.7	141.8

gross profit before commissions - $1,240.00 x 7 = $8,680.00

Again on the same day with the meats bundle I piled into live cattle future trades.  My instincts were correct, I spotted the big fund buying and I jumped on the band wagon but notice how i jumped off very fast. indeed as the steam ran out as predicted, the market slid into a sideways channel drift. This is the usually hallmark of the markets these days. To spot the trends you really need to turn to weekly charts and notice how the daily volatility range can really sap the strength out of the small trader who doesn't have the equity to ride the reversals. its true that since the 1990's the commodities markets have vastly changed with the advent of technology and information delivery systems, so much so that the pool of participants has considerably widened, hence the huge volatility as market opinion can neither settle within a long term trend now sustain the losses on market reversals. "The trend is your friend"  was my early cornerstone in my early career; now, you need to have huge deep pockets if you like to pursue the trend, and that my friends is what the teachers have failed to mention, in that following the trend, you need substantially more capital to ride the whip-saws than say 20 years ago!

Again keeping it simple, pure market numbers and simple chart recognition may suffice to assist your decision making than all the quagmire of indicators that may bog you down with hours of analysis and increase your chances of indecision. When the greyhound has bolted from the door, dont just stand there and compute in the face of a cloud of dust!

In and out, a change of tactics trading to your strength and knowing thyself is what will sustain your commodity experiences. Cutting edge technology and widgets doesnt help the trader on the pit floor. Mental manipulation of numbers and instinct does.